Over the last few months we have seen several innovative semiconductor startups raise some serious money, nevertheless it seem that as a whole, Venture Capitalists (VCs) seem to be a pessimistic bunch at the moment - at least the three guys Rick Merritt interviewed for his "Silicon Stratups get the Squeeze" article. Among the VCs interviewed were Andy Rappaport from August Capital, Mark Stevens from Sequoia Capital, and Lip-Bu Tan from Walden International. The main reason for the pessimism is well know to anyone in the chip industry, namely the prohibitively high cost of bringing a new fabless semiconductor startup to market.
I won't recap Rick's whole article for you can read it on your own, but there were a few interesting takeaways. According to Andy, if companies doing big SoC designs adopt open interfaces, there will be a chance for startups to at least play a part in supplying designs for specific functions to be integrated onto the SoCs. Further, he points out that system designers will have to do more in software in the future as chip choices will become limited. Mark very much agrees with this point of view, adding that with IPO exits largely non-existent these days and with established companies paying less and less for acquisitions, the return on investment (ROI) for funding semiconductor startups is simply no longer there. Lip-Bu is even more pessimistic, arguing that a substantial percentage of the approximately 2,200 companies funded over the last decade will have to fold and that the R&D mantle will pass once more to the big chip makers. He further points out that plenty of talented engineers, who will not be interested in joining these conglomerates, will choose instead to pursue careers in the clean technology and solar areas. Of the three guys interviewed, Lip-Bu seems the one most committed to semiconductors, but you better approach him only if the majority of your company is going to be located in China, India, or Taiwan. He firmly believes that the semiconductor center is moving west rapidly. If green technologies are not your thing and you want to stick with semiconductors, you better brush up on your mixed-signal and analog skills since both Andy and Lip-Bu prefer these areas at the moment.
I'm somewhat surprised that not one of the interviewed VCs discussed opportunities for low-power semiconductor startups in the life-sciences area. It seems to me that this field in particular could benefit from novel analog and mixed-signal designs and should be well suited for startups. I'm also somewhat skeptical about the large sum of money, on the order of $100 to $200 million, that the VCs claim are needed to get a fabless semiconductor startups funded. Additionally, a budget of $2 million dollars for a verification team per month as claimed by Andy seems unreasonable for a startup - even large chip design houses would find this to be expensive. Most companies we have written about on this site fall somewhere in the $20 - $60 million range when it comes to total funding, which while not cheap compared to a software startup is a far cry from the numbers that the VCs are suggesting. It almost seems that the exaggerated price tag that VCs are attaching to semiconductor startups is their indirect way of saying that they have found cheaper investments that have a quicker ROI elsewhere.