We reported earlier this year that 2008 was anything but a stellar start in terms of venture capital for semiconductor startups. It does not take a genius to see that the semiconductor market has been on shaky ground as of late, excluding a couple companies here and there. Nevertheless, running across two articles that highlight the negative and are published on the same day, while addressing the opposite sides of the semiconductor spectrum, is rather depressing.
The first article, titled Why Chip Stocks are Down and written by Steve Tobak, focuses on established semiconductor companies and examines why they have significantly underperformed the market over the last few years even though chip sales have experienced double-digit growth over the same period. According to Steve, some of the lackluster performance can be explained by the recent memory chip glut. Additionally, the dot-com bust which inflated the stock prices of more than one semiconductor company still rears its ugly head to some degree. And while an in-depth analysis of the entire sector is sort of lacking in the article, one observation regarding companies that bucked the trend is quite enlightening: “Proprietary products in hot markets resist negative sector trends, while commodities suffer the most.” This observation is exemplified by companies such as Qualcomm and Marvel who have done rather well for themselves. Interestingly, nVidia did quite well over the same time period too, while Intel stayed about flat - One would think that the fortunes of these two companies would be in lock-step, but this turns out not to be the case at least as far as stock valuation is concerned.
The second article is a commentary by Chris Fisher titled What Price Entrepreneurship? Essentially, the article questions whether starting or joining a semiconductor startup makes sense from an individual’s financial point of view. Chris estimates that a semiconductor startup needs to raise in-between $60 and $120 million these days. Money alone of course does not guarantee that the company will be successful – Montalvo comes to mind as a recent example. Now, if getting this much money was not difficult enough, Chris points out that public markets recently have valued semiconductor companies on the low side at about three times revenues. Add to this the dismal performance of semiconductor IPOs as of late, a lack of interest by established companies in acquiring new ones, and one has to wonder if time spent on a semiconductor startup is time well spent. Of course, if money is your most important objective, then Web 2.0 and related startups which usually require significantly less startup capital might be a better option at this point. Although from my experience, many semiconductor aficionados will very much cringe at the idea of writing code all day or having to sit through code reviews.